Michigan Ag Connection - National/World News - Brazil Passes U.S. as Largest Corn Exporter

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Brazil Passes U.S. as Largest Corn Exporter
USAgNet - 03/20/2023

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast that Brazil will export more corn than the United States this year has shaken the global corn market. Brazil exported more corn than the U.S. only once before, in the drought year of 2012/13. If Brazil emerges as the largest exporting nation, its front-runner status might not be temporary.

The continued expansion of corn as a second crop and the recent opening to the Chinese market could mean that Brazil will keep competing with the U.S. for the title of world's top corn exporter more often in the coming years. This article examines the main factors that could push Brazil into first place.

In its March "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)" report, the USDA raised its forecast for Brazilian corn exports to 50 million tons for the 2022-23 marketing year (October-September). That would put Brazil above the United States, the long-established world leader in corn exports.

The United States is expected to ship 47 million tons to foreign buyers, two million tons less than the February forecast. Brazilian exports have risen sevenfold in 15 years, jumping from 7 million tons to 50 million tons (Figure 1).

Brazil and China signed an agreement on phytosanitary requirements for corn trade last year, and the first shipment of Brazilian corn to China occurred in November 2022. In the 2021-22 marketing year, the primary destinations of Brazilian corn were Iran, Spain, Japan, Egypt, and Colombia.

In January 2023, China became the primary destination of Brazilian corn exports by volume, surpassing the traditional importers, according to trade data from the Brazilian government. The pace of corn exports to China at the beginning of the year exceeded expectations. In January and February 2023, the Brazilian government authorized 90 new companies to export corn to China, reaching 446 companies qualified to ship to the Chinese market. Brazil's exports are expected to fall seasonally beginning in March and continuing until the safrinha harvest later in the year.

By contrast, U.S. corn exports have been off to a slow start. Production in 2022/23 was smaller than initially forecast and Mississippi River conditions in the months after harvest kept U.S. prices relatively uncompetitive. Since mid-January, U.S. price competitiveness has improved but export sales have been slow to respond.

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